As the video game industry approaches the business end of the competition for Game of the Year at the 13th annual Game Awards, set for December 10, most of the key contenders have finally stepped into the ring. While Rockstar Games is cutting things notoriously close in terms of giving the voting jury adequate time to play and consider it, the likelihood of anything emerging to stop Grand Theft Auto 6 from sweeping the night looks increasingly slim. Although what once looked like a powerhouse year on paper has turned out to be much weaker due to potential spoilers like Marvel’s Wolverine flaming out or underwhelming critics, the landscape still leaves plenty of room for unexpected and exciting nominees.
At this point in the cycle, the voting body for The Game Awards offers a clear picture of what to expect. Composed of a wide range of international games media outlets—including Polygon—alongside a 10-percent contribution from fan voting, the jury operates under several strong indicators for what typically performs well in the premier Game of the Year category. A high Metacritic rating, preferably sitting above 90, remains an absolute must. Role-playing games and cinematic action-adventures are heavily favored, as are titles featuring profound narrative elements. Conversely, indie releases and multiplayer-focused games traditionally struggle much harder for broad recognition against AAA single-player adventures.
These exact metrics previously allowed analysts to correctly predict past winners, including Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 and Astro Bot, as well as successfully forecasting all six Game of the Year nominees and 20 other category winners. Looking at the 2026 race, predictions focus exclusively on titles that have already been released or made available for review. Unlike the film industry, where major projects are heavily understood quantities well in advance, the true impact and quality of a video game remain largely unpredictable until it reaches the public, compounded by frequent release date delays.
Leading the current pack of released contenders is Resident Evil Requiem. Serving as a reliable brand at The Game Awards, the franchise has secured three Game of the Year nominations since 2019 alongside numerous nods in other categories. Requiem successfully combines the nostalgic fan appeal of Capcom’s recent remakes with the creative freshness of an entirely new mainline entry, blending their respective gameplay styles seamlessly. Slickly produced, thrilling, and digestible while maintaining global appeal and a serious tone, it checks every box for a traditional Game of the Year contender. Its primary weakness lies in its critical reception, which, while very good overall, sits in the high 80s on Metacritic and OpenCritic—perhaps a fraction soft for an ultimate winner. However, with potential challengers continuing to falter, it currently holds a steady lead as a lock for a nomination.
Hot on its heels is Fire Emblem: Fortune’s Weave, which has captured an impressive 89 on Metacritic. Critics have praised the title for uniting robust storytelling with refined combat on an epic canvas, marking a major milestone for the tactical role-playing series. As the Game Awards increasingly recognize deep, authentic Japanese-developed role-playing games such as Metaphor: ReFantazio, combined with massive fan support reminiscent of Fire Emblem: Three Houses winning the Player’s Voice award, Fortune’s Weave commands serious attention. Its main hurdle is category history, as strategy games are typically relegated to the Sim/Strategy bracket rather than crossing over into Game of the Year. Furthermore, as a Nintendo release, it risks being overshadowed by the broader conversation surrounding the Zelda: Ocarina of Time remake.
IO Interactive’s debut James Bond project, 007 First Light, has also made a confident splash with an 87 Metascore. Blending slick cinematic action-adventure design with the studio’s trademark social stealth mechanics, the game resonates well with the jury. While licensed titles rarely break into the Game of the Year conversation, and some reviewers have expressed reservations regarding IO’s shift toward a more commercial direction, the sudden collapse of competing action-adventures like Marvel’s Wolverine has left Bond in a surprisingly solid position.
Remedy Entertainment’s Control Resonant follows closely behind, benefiting from the studio’s unique ability to bridge mainstream cinematic action-adventures with indie authenticity and critical goodwill. Both the original Control and Alan Wake 2 secured Game of the Year nominations, keeping Remedy firmly in the conversation. However, a genre shift from a tight shooter to an open-world action-RPG has drawn a mixed response. Despite holding a higher Metacritic rating than its predecessor at 84 compared to 82, the general sentiment feels somewhat cooler, potentially because the sequel has lost its initial element of surprise.
Representing the independent sector, House House’s co-op puzzle adventure Big Walk boasts the highest critical reputation among released contenders, sitting at a formidable 91 on Metacritic. Following the developer’s pedigree with Untitled Goose Game, which earned a dark-horse nomination in 2019 and won the top prize at the DICE Awards, Big Walk capitalizes on the enduring popularity of cooperative experiences at the show, echoing past winners like It Takes Two. Its primary obstacle is logistical, as online multiplayer games requiring social organization can be challenging for busy jury members to fully experience.
Rounding out the primary released contenders is Crimson Desert. Offering massive scope, variety, and striking technical polish, Pearl Abyss’s action-RPG mirrors the profile of "outsider AAA" projects like Black Myth: Wukong and Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2. Despite strong global sales and a passionate fanbase, its primary weakness is its critical score, hovering below the traditional 80 threshold at 77. With no historical precedent for a sub-80 Metascore game earning a Game of the Year nomination, it clings to its spot by a narrow margin.
Beyond the frontrunners, several dark horses linger on the fringes of the 2026 race. The Blood of Dawnwalker, a vampire role-playing game spearheaded by key talent behind The Witcher 3, underwhelmed slightly at launch but remains a strong contender for Best Narrative. Star Wars Zero Company has deeply impressed tactical game enthusiasts who champion its intricate design, while Capcom’s sci-fi action title Pragmata retains innovative enough gameplay to register with voters. Yacht Club’s Mina the Hollower commands adoration from critics for its retro aesthetic, presenting a potential indie alternative should Big Walk falter, while Pokémon Pokopia presents a unique life-simulation format that stretches traditional definitions of the genre.
Looking toward upcoming titles scheduled for the tail end of the year, the ultimate victor may still be waiting in the wings. Grand Theft Auto 6 remains the presumptive favorite, provided Rockstar Games successfully meets its release window just days before the eligibility deadline. Nintendo’s lavish reimagining of The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time tests the industry’s historical aversion to remakes. Meanwhile, projects like Phantom Blade Zero, Gears of War: E-Day, and FromSoftware’s The Duskbloods stand ready to shake up the final weeks of the 2026 competition as the December ceremony draws closer.
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